Month: April 2025

Bitcoin overtaking the US dollar is “an actual truth to grapple with,” says a crypto analyst.

The lingering fears triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs have analysts increasingly convinced that Bitcoin is now more likely than ever to challenge the US dollar in the years ahead.

“Higher chance Bitcoin survives over the dollar in our lifetime after today,” Bitwise Invest head of alpha strategies Jeff Parks said in an April 9 X post.

Investors will be left with no other option but Bitcoin, says crypto exec
“First time the thought hit me and didn’t feel like theory but an actual truth to grapple with,” Parks added.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley shared a similar view, noting that with trust in the US dollar waning and other foreign currencies seen as “even weaker,” investors are left with fewer choices.

He argued that gold, typically seen as a safe harbor amid uncertainty, also has drawbacks around shipping and storage and implied that Bitcoin may be the only option left. “You wind up buying Bitcoin,” Horsley said.

The US Dollar Index — which tracks its strength against a basket of major currencies — is trading at 102.193, down 5.84% since Jan. 1, according to TradingView.

However, Wall Street analysts were mistaken in thinking that the tariffs would bolster the US dollar, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.

On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries, which took effect on April 5. Harsher reciprocal tariffs on trading partners with which the US has the largest trade deficits then kicked in on April 9.

Uncertainty around the tariffs and fears of a broader recession have been major catalysts for a wide traditional and crypto market decline.

Bitcoin
BTC
$84,282
is trading at $76,301, down 18.37% since Jan. 1, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bitcoin author Saifedean Ammous said in an April 8 X post that America’s issue isn’t with one specific country’s deficit but with aggregate deficits worldwide due to having a “fiat money printer.”

“An ever-increasing number of Americans can live off the money printer as long as the rest of the world is using the dollar,” Ammous said.

He argued that the real solution is to stop printing “fake money” and move to a hard store of value, naming Bitcoin or gold as examples.

“Another way to solve this problem would be for the world to move to a hard money standard and stop using America’s shitcoin, and give Trump the trade surpluses he thinks he wants.”

Bitcoin fails to deliver this quarter as gold outperforms and US trade tariffs keep BTC price upside firmly off the menu as crypto traders brace for impact.

Bitcoin
BTC
$83,523
limps into the end of Q1 on 13% losses as fresh macroeconomic volatility looms.

BTC price action risks a fresh dip below $80,000 as new US trade tariffs weigh on risk-asset sentiment.

Crypto traders’ tariff woes focus on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, while gold heads higher.

Despite the doom and gloom, Bitcoin has had a relatively mild March, while Q1 threatens to be its worst in seven years.

Profitability currently points the way to a bull market drawdown with no realistic bottom in sight.

The Coinbase Premium puts up a fight amid the price dip, suggesting that panic sellers have already exited.

BTC price: “Bearish engulfing” sets the tone
Bitcoin traders are on edge this week as US trade tariffs follow the monthly and quarterly candle closes.

A recipe for risk-asset volatility has many market participants bracing for the worst as BTC price action edges increasingly close to $80,000.

The lowest levels in two weeks at about $81,200 accompanied the March 30 weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed.

“In LTF, the first noticeable thing is this new wick to the downside,” trader CrypNuevo responded on X.

The picture on longer timeframes, per trading resource Barchart, is no better unless the risk-asset landscape improves.

Bitcoin and US stocks are headed for so-called “death crosses,” it warned prior to the Wall Street open, as short-term losses catch up to the broader uptrend.

“What if price action is red heading into those Death Crosses with the actual Crosses marking the bottom like we’ve seen many times before?” Barchart queried.

A look at exchange order book data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile shows bid and ask liquidity clustered tightly around price.

Continuing, CrypNuevo paid particular attention to the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs).

“Seeing some compression between the 1W50EMA and 1D50EMA which always leads to an aggressive move,” he observed.

“It might take a bit more time based on previous cases. It’s also quite common seeing multiple and consecutives retests of this bull market support.”

D-Day for US tariffs precedes jobs data onslaught
US employment data and Federal Reserve officials are among the key events on the radar for risk-asset traders this week.

Job openings, jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls are all due, with the first round of numbers released on April 2.

This may be overshadowed by the start of new US trade tariffs set to begin on the same day. As Cointelegraph continues to report,

crypto remains highly sensitive to tariff news, with Trump giving mixed messages as to which measures will ultimately come into force.

In a dedicated X thread on the topic, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that tariffs may impact about $1.5 trillion worth of US imports by the end of the month.

“President Trump has been discussing this Wednesday, April 2nd, for weeks. This is a day that he has named ‘Liberation Day’ where widespread new tariffs are coming,” it wrote.

“We believe April 2nd will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Markets are in for a wild week.”

Kobeissi pointed to unusually high levels of market uncertainty, as represented by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.

With many a surprise to come, market commentators are not the only ones in “wait and see” mode.

April 4 will see Fed Chair Powell take to the stage with a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia.

Earlier this month, Powell said that while it was not easy to pin inflation pressures on tariffs, he was in no hurry to lower interest rates — the key move awaited by risk-asset traders.

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continue to favor the Fed’s June meeting as the date of the next rate cut.

Bitcoin rounds off a limp Q1
As both the monthly and quarterly candles prepare to close, Bitcoin is looking at a distinctly uninspiring mid-term performance.

Data from CoinGlass shows BTC/USD down 12.7% in Q1 at the time of writing, making it the worst first quarter of the year since 2018.

The cryptocurrency market is up today, in what appears to be calm before a storm as markets await Trump’s tariffs to kick in.

The cryptocurrency market is up today, with the total market capitalization rising by approximately 3.8% in the last 24 hours to reach $2.73 trillion on April 2. The gains were led by Bitcoin
BTC
$83,501
and Ether
ETH
$1,811
, which have risen around 3% and 5%, respectively.

let’s look at the top catalysts driving the crypto market rebound today.

Markets take “deep breath” ahead of Trump’s “liberation day”
The crypto market’s recovery today aligns closely with similar rebounds in the US stock market, ahead of Trump’s “liberation day,” with Bitcoin leading the market higher.

What you should know:

Dubbed by President Donald Trump as a pivotal moment for US trade policy, the “Liberation Day” on April 2 promises the announcement of reciprocal tariffs aimed at rebalancing global trade.

Recent weeks have seen cryptocurrencies retreat amid fears of a tariff-induced economic slowdown, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 23% from its all-time high due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

However, today’s gains suggest a possible shift in sentiment, with market analysts viewing it as a moment of calm before the storm.

This has spurred a risk-on sentiment, with Bitcoin climbing back above $84,000 and Ether edging above $1,800.

This suggests that investors are positioning themselves ahead of tomorrow’s potentially market-moving news.

Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.163
and Cardano
ADA
$0.6481
rose over 6%, while XRP
XRP
$2.04
, Solana
SOL
$117.97
and BNB
BNB
$598.50
were up nearly 3.5%.

Looks like global market sentiment is taking a “take a deep breath” approach in the countdown to Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, said Reuters’ Kevin Buckland in a Morning Bid newsletter.

“Nothing has really changed: We still are no wiser as to what Trump is set to announce on Wednesday,” Buckland continued, adding:

“Any expectations that there might be room for trade partners to negotiate apparently came undone with the US president’s statement

late on Sunday that essentially every country will be slapped with reciprocal levies.”
Commenting on this trading firm, QCP Capital said that a “broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling.”

QCP Capital added:

“That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief reprieve.”

Crypto investment funds flows remain positive
The crypto market’s ongoing correction aligns with significant inflows into crypto investment products.

Key takeaways:

Digital asset investment products saw inflows for the second week in a row, totaling $226 million during the week ending March 28, as per CoinShares report.

This brings the last two weeks of inflows to $870 million, following five weeks of outflows.

Bitcoin investment products saw investor inflows totaling $197 million, while altcoins saw inflows for the first time in 5 weeks totaling $33 million

This indicates institutional investors are increasing their exposure to digital assets, albeit in a “cautious” manner, according to CoinShares head of research James Butterfill.

Butterfill said:

“Following the largest outflows on record, ETPs have seen 9 consecutive trading days of inflows.”

Crypto market technical rebound
From a technical perspective, the crypto market’s bounce today has occurred primarily due to its oversold relative strength index (RSI).

Key points:

The RSI on the 4-hour timeframe dipped below 30, entering oversold territory.

A slight rebound in RSI suggests buyers are stepping in to absorb selling pressure.

As a rule of technical analysis, oversold conditions typically lead to short-term relief rallies.

Furthermore, the crypto market is eyeing extended recovery as it paints a potential double-bottom pattern.

Note that:

The total crypto market cap chart shows two consecutive lows around $2.60 trillion, forming a double bottom pattern.

A double-bottom is considered a bullish reversal structure, resolving when the price breaks above its neckline resistance and rises by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.

Confirmation of this pattern would require a decisive breakout and a four-hour candlestick close above the neckline at $2.67 trillion.

If the breakout occurs, the measured move target is $2.76 trillion.

The target lies above a critical supply zone stretching from $2.72 trillion and $2.74 trillion, where all the major moving averages lie.

Failure to break above this barrier may result in continued consolidation between $2.70 trillion and $2.72 trillion.

According to popular analyst Crypto Zone, the crypto market is still “gripped by fear,” with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 24, even as the total market cap rises.

The analyst added:

“This mixed sentiment suggests caution, but also potential buying opportunities for those who dare to be greedy when others are fearful.”

Research from Fidelity Digital Assets suggests that the Bitcoin bull market is not done yet, as the “acceleration cycle” has yet to produce a blow-off top.

A recent Fidelity Digital Assets report questioned whether Bitcoin’s price had already seen its cyclical “blow off top” or if BTC
BTC
$83,475
is on the cusp of another “acceleration phase.”

According to Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright, Bitcoin’s acceleration phases are characterized by “high volatility and high profit,” similar to the price action seen when BTC pushed above $20,000 in December 2020.

While Bitcoin’s year-to-date return reflects an 11.4% loss, and the asset is down nearly 25% from its all-time high,

Wainwright said the recent post-acceleration phase performance aligns with BTC’s average drawdowns, compared with previous market cycles.

Wainwright suggests that Bitcoin is still in an acceleration phase but is moving closer to the completion of the cycle, as March 3 represented day 232 of the period. Previous peaks lasted slightly longer before a corrective period set in.

“The acceleration phase of 2010 – 2011, 2015, and 2017 reached their tops on day 244, 261, 280, respectively, suggesting a slightly more drawn-out phase each cycle.”

Is another parabolic rally in the cards for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s price has languished below $100,000 since Feb. 21, and a good deal of the momentum and positive sentiment that comprised

the “Trump trade” has dissipated and been replaced by tariff-war-induced volatility and the markets’ fear that the US could be heading into a recession.

Despite these overhanging factors and the negative impact they’ve had on day-to-day Bitcoin prices, large entities continue to add to their BTC stockpiles.

On March 31, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor announced that the company had acquired 22,048 BTC ($1.92 billion) at an average price of $86,969 per Bitcoin. On the same day, Bitcoin miner MARA revealed plans to sell up to $2 billion in stock to acquire more BTC “from time to time.”

Following in the footsteps of larger-cap companies, Japanese firm Metaplanet issued 2 billion yen ($13.3 million) in bonds on March 31 to buy more Bitcoin,

and the biggest news of March came from GameStop announcing a $1.3 billion convertible notes offering, a portion of which could be used to purchase Bitcoin.

The recent buying and statements of intent to buy from a variety of international and US-based publicly listed companies show a price-agnostic approach to accumulating BTC as a reserve asset, and highlight the positive future price expectations among institutional investors.

While it is difficult to determine the impact of institutional investor Bitcoin purchases on BTC price, Wainwright said that a metric to watch is the number of days during a rolling 60-day period when the cryptocurrency hits a new all-time high. Wainwright posted the following chart and said:

“Bitcoin has typically experienced two major surges within previous Acceleration Phases, with the first instance of this cycle’s following the election. If a new all-time high is on the horizon, it will have a starting base near $110,000.”